S&P 500 vs 200-day MA
OK+8.7%
Flags when the S&P 500 closes below its 200-day average — the market's primary trend turning down.
Right now, the market leans
BULLISH
3/11
bear signposts flashing
3 / 11 Bulls as of 18 Jun 2026
The 11 signposts
Each is a single bearish condition, on or off. The verdict above is just how many are flashing at once — the evidence is here.
Death cross (50/200-day)
OK+6.0%
Flags when the 50-day average falls below the 200-day — the classic 'death cross' trend signal.
Weekly trend structure
OKHigher highs
Flags when recent weeks make both lower highs and lower lows — a bearish weekly structure.
Volatility (VIX)
OK16.4
Flags when the VIX closes above 25 for 3+ straight days — persistent fear, not a one-day scare.
Yield curve
OK+0.29 pp
Flags when the 10Y–2Y or 10Y–3M Treasury spread inverts — a classic recession lead indicator.
Credit spreads (HY OAS)
OK-7.1% / 30d
Flags when high-yield credit spreads widen more than 20% in 30 days — funding stress building.
Market breadth
OK61%
Flags when fewer than half of S&P members hold above their 200-day MA — a narrow, fragile rally.
Top-10 concentration
Flagged41.5%
Flags when the 10 largest companies exceed 35% of index weight — the market leans on a few mega-caps.
Consumer sentiment
OK50
A contrarian signal: flags on extreme optimism (above 100), which tends to cluster near market tops.
Rule of 20 (valuation)
Flagged36.3
Flags when trailing P/E plus CPI inflation exceeds 20 — the market is richly valued.
Bank lending standards
Flagged+8 pp
Flags when more banks are tightening than easing loan standards — credit getting harder to get.
The trend
The composite over time. Watch the slope, not any single day — a steady climb means warning signs are stacking up. Lines mark caution (4) and elevated (8).