Methodology
Bull or Bear tracks 11 well-known market signposts. Each is a single bearish condition that is either on or off today. The headline score is simply how many are flashing at once.
Reading the score
- 0–3 · Bulls — benign, few warning signs.
- 4–7 · Mixed — caution, conditions are building.
- 8–11 · Bears — elevated, many signposts coincide.
On any day a data source can be delayed; a missing signpost lowers the denominator (e.g. 6 / 10) rather than counting as benign.
The 11 signposts
1S&P 500 vs 200-day MA
Shows. The S&P 500 price against its 200-day moving average — the market's primary trend.
Watch for. Price closing below the 200-day line.
Meaning. Trading above is healthy; a close below the 200-day is a classic bearish trend signal.
2Death cross (50/200-day)
Shows. The 50-day moving average against the 200-day.
Watch for. The 50-day crossing below the 200-day.
Meaning. A "death cross" marks the medium-term trend rolling over beneath the long-term trend.
3Weekly trend structure
Shows. The pattern of recent weekly highs and lows.
Watch for. A run of lower highs and lower lows.
Meaning. Bearish structure is a sequence of lower peaks and troughs — the textbook downtrend.
4Volatility (VIX)
Shows. The CBOE Volatility Index — expected 30-day S&P 500 volatility, the "fear gauge".
Watch for. Sustained closes above 25, not a one-day spike.
Meaning. Below ~15–20 is calm; the signpost flags only when VIX holds above 25 for 3+ days — persistent stress.
5Yield curve
Shows. 10Y-minus-2Y and 10Y-minus-3M Treasury yield spreads.
Watch for. Either spread dropping below zero (inversion).
Meaning. Inversion — short rates above long rates — is one of the most reliable recession lead indicators, typically 6–18 months ahead.
6Credit spreads (HY OAS)
Shows. ICE BofA US High-Yield option-adjusted spread — the extra yield demanded to hold junk bonds over Treasuries.
Watch for. Rapid widening.
Meaning. Low and stable means calm credit; the signpost flags when the spread widens more than 20% over 30 days — funding stress.
7Market breadth
Shows. The percent of S&P 500 members trading above their own 200-day MA — how broad the trend is.
Watch for. The figure falling below 50% while the index is still up.
Meaning. A healthy market has the majority participating; below 50% is a narrow, fragile rally led by a few names.
8Top-10 concentration
Shows. The combined index weight of the 10 largest companies.
Watch for. Readings above 35%.
Meaning. High concentration means the index leans on a handful of mega-caps — a stumble there drags the whole market.
9Consumer sentiment
Shows. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, used as a contrarian signal.
Watch for. Unusually high readings (above 100).
Meaning. Extreme optimism clusters near market tops, so high confidence is the bearish tell here — not low.
10Rule of 20 (valuation)
Shows. Trailing S&P 500 P/E plus year-over-year CPI inflation — a classic fair-value gauge.
Watch for. The sum rising above 20.
Meaning. Near 20 is roughly fair value; the further above, the more overvalued (high P/E and/or high inflation).
11Bank lending standards
Shows. Net percent of US banks tightening commercial & industrial loan standards (Fed Senior Loan Officer survey).
Watch for. The figure rising above zero.
Meaning. Positive means more banks tightening than easing — credit getting harder to obtain, which slows the economy.
Data & cadence
Prices and volatility come from Yahoo Finance; macro series (yield curve, credit spreads, sentiment, lending standards, inflation) from the Federal Reserve's FRED. The set of signposts follows a BofA-style framework. The composite recomputes once daily, after the US market close.